Topography of Mountains Could Complicate Rates of Global Warming

Topography of Mountains Could Complicate Rates of Global Warming

A new study concludes that the future effects of global warming could be significantly changed over very small distances by local air movements in complex or mountainous terrain -- perhaps doubling or even tripling the temperature increases in some situations.


This graphic indicates December daytime temperature differentials that might be expected from future global warming, in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest near Blue River, Ore. Weather conditions that cause ridgetops to warm and cold air to pool in valleys may become more frequent - magnifying global warming on the ridgetops but not in the valley bottoms. (Credit: Oregon State University)

In an article to be published in the International Journal of Climatology, researchers from Oregon State University used the unique historical data provided by Oregon's H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest to study potential variations in temperature caused by steep hills and valleys.

Based on a regional temperature increase of about 5 degrees projected for western Oregon by 2100, the study concluded that some locations, such as mountain ridge tops, could actually increase as much as 14 degrees at some times, while cold air pools in the valleys below them with temperature increases similar to the regional average.

"Even if the predictions for average temperature changes are accurate, there's been very little work done on what that may mean in specific locations and situations," said Chris Daly, an OSU professor of geosciences, director of OSU's PRISM Climate Group and expert on the effects of elevation and topography on localized climatic effects.

"We are finding that there's a potential here for tremendous disparities in local effects that we need to learn more about," Daly said. "Some locations may get much warmer than the average while others nearby are affected less, with associated impacts on their ecology, the plant and animals species that live there."

The steep terrain and long-term climate records in the H.J. Andrews Forest near Blue River, Ore., in the central Oregon Cascade Range, have provided an unusual data set to study this phenomenon. In general, temperatures decrease as you go up in altitude -- but not necessarily in the mountains. Some ridges in the H.J. Andrews are routinely warmer than protected valleys below them, especially at night and during winter, as cool air drains down their flanks and forms "cold pools" with fairly stable temperatures.

The formation of these cold pools is most pronounced during clear, calm weather. Since the zone of high pressure that provides California with many clear, calm days is projected to shift northward in a warming climate, the Pacific Northwest may see an increase in cold air pooling in many mountain valleys. This could lead to amplified warming on the ridges of several degrees, compared to that in the valleys.

Ecological and hydrological impacts are likely, but difficult to predict. Douglas-fir forests tolerate a wide range of temperature conditions and are fairly resilient, Daly said, but some plant or animal species that can't readily move may face challenges.

Cool valley bottoms with more stable temperatures could actually act as refuges from the hotter ridge tops for some species, but are not expected to escape the overall warming that will affect the region. Variations in snowmelt between ridge tops and valleys are also likely to become more complex.

"At a larger scale, these changes in regional airflow patterns may also alter the flow of marine air from the Pacific Ocean that helps cool and ventilate the interior valleys during summer," Daly said. "If there are more times when that ocean air flow pattern shuts down, the valleys where most of the population lives could become much hotter than expected."

Similar forces could be found in many Mediterranean climates around the world, such as in Europe, South America and parts of the western U.S., which have climates that are controlled by the seasonal movement of high pressure belts, Daly said.

"There is more we need to be concerned about than overall warming, and we really haven't given these localized issues much consideration," he said.

Research will continue in the Andrews Forest to study these changes as they evolve, scientists said. Although not all U.S. mountains are topographically similar to this area, such steep terrain and poorly ventilated valleys are common in many parts of the Cascade Range, Sierra Nevada mountains, and Rocky Mountains.

This research was aided by the Long Term Ecological Research Program of the National Science Foundation, which supports OSU and the U.S. Forest Service in operating the H.J. Andrews Forest.
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Adapted from materials provided by Oregon State University.

Journal Reference:

1. Christopher Daly, David R. Conklin, Michael H. Unsworth. Local atmospheric decoupling in complex topography alters climate change impacts. International Journal of Climatology, 2009; : n/a DOI: 10.1002/joc.2007

Airlines, scientists split over impact of ash

ARIS, Apr. 19, 2010 (Reuters) — Experts disagree over how to measure the dispersal of volcanic ash and who should decide when it is safe to fly, as millions of travelers remain grounded and revenue losses top $1 billion due to the Icelandic ash crisis.


Steam, rocks and ash are thrown out of an erupting volcano near Eyjafjallajokull April 19, 2010. An Icelandic volcano that has grounded planes across Europe is spitting lava but less ash, officials said on Monday, offering travellers hope that skies might clear at a faster rate. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

"I would call it a European mess because we did not focus on figures and facts," Giovanni Bisignani, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Monday.

"Europe was using a theoretical mathematical approach and this is not what you need. We needed some test flights to go into the atmosphere and assess the level of ashes and take decisions," he told Reuters in an interview.

British Airways and Air France-KLM said they had operated test flights and encountered no difficulties from ash ejected by an Icelandic volcano, whose eruption has halted thousands of flights and spread disruption worldwide.

There is a stark difference of opinion between experts in academia and airlines, but the European Union's top transport official said the EU would not compromise on safety. NATO took the threat seriously enough to limit military exercises after volcanic glass built up in fighter engines.

Few people dispute the damage that volcanic ash can wreak inside a modern turbofan engine, after a British Airways jumbo jet narrowly avoided disaster over Indonesia in 1982 when all four of its engines stalled at 37,000 feet due to ingested ash.

Volcanic ash contains minute particles of angular rock and silicates which can strip away the aerodynamic surfaces and instruments and deposit a glass-like coating inside the engine.

Bisignani said governments were wrong to impose a "blanket ban" on air travel in northern Europe and said decision-makers should consider setting up "corridors" to repatriate the estimated 7 million passengers stranded across the globe.

ESCAPING THE ASH

Joachim Curtius, professor at Frankfurt Goethe University's Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, defended the ban and said it would make sense for airlines to install instruments to measure particles in the air on their aircraft.

Currently, only a small number of such instruments, which cost tens of thousands of euros each, are made every year.

Pilots cannot see pockets of ash, and an instrument measuring particles in the air could warn a pilot in time to react, for instance by flying to a lower altitude, he said.

But simply lowering altitude is no guarantee of success.

"You could think that you're safe flying along at 20,000 feet rather than up at 40,000 where the ash is, only to find that the wind has suddenly dropped and the ash is now at 20,000 feet," said Stewart John, Fellow of the UK's Royal Academy of Engineering and ex-president of the Royal Aeronautical Society.

Australia's Volcanic Ash Advisory Center is one of nine centers around the world that issue warnings on aviation.

"The main problem is that the volcano keeps erupting, so it keeps producing more ash," said manager Rebecca Patrick.

"If it is at high (altitude) levels it can hang around for 20 days," she said, citing a volcanic ash cloud which stretched from South America to the western Pacific in 2002.

"So it is best to be overly cautious because of what can happen if an aircraft goes through the cloud."

Meteorologists try to anticipate threats such as this by using models unfathomable to outsiders.

Airlines are still smarting from what many of them see as expert over-reaction to the threat of swine flu last year.

"We have to make decisions based on the real situation not theoretical models," Bisignani said.

Volcanic ash guidelines are drawn up by the International Civil Aviation Organization, a United Nations body, but experts say there is no commonly agreed safe concentration of ash.

"The ICAO regulation that has prompted this widespread grounding is from experience gained from over 80 incidents between 1980 and 2000 and computer modeling (or) best guestimate," said aviation consultant Chris Yates.

"The airline industry will know this very well and are clearly making the argument that we are being over cautious." * Q+A-Why is volcanic ash a threat to planes?

Iceland volcano News

Source: Europe Media Monitor

European flights resume, ash cloud still disrupts (Reuters) (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 09:30:00 +0200) : Reuters - Flights from large parts of Europe were set to resume on Tuesday under a deal to free up airspace closed by a huge ash cloud, but strengthened eruptions from an Icelandic volcano threatened to unravel the plans.
news-yahoo

European flights resume, ash cloud still disrupts (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 09:27:00 +0200) : AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Flights from large parts of Europe were set to resume on Tuesday under a deal to free up airspace closed by a huge ash cloud, but strengthened eruptions from an Icelandic volcano threatened to unravel the plans.
WashingtonPost

Hotel Operators Decide Apply No Sanctions On Clients Delaying Reservations Over Flights Cancelled Because Of Volcano Eruption (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 09:24:00 +0200) : "We are trying to meet halfway the guests even in the cases when rooms were reserved under the so-called 'irrevocable' tariff, supposing no refunds in any circumstances," said Tetiana Podhoretska, sales and marketing director at Premier Hotels chain of hotels.
ukranews

European flights resume, but ash cloud still disrupts (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 09:10:00 +0200) : AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Flights from large parts of Europe were set to resume on Tuesday under a deal to free up airspace closed by a huge ash cloud, but strengthened eruptions from an Icelandic volcano threatened to unravel the plans.
thestar

Flights resume in European airspace blocked by ash (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 09:05:00 +0200) : PARIS (AP) -- Limited flights are resuming at Paris airports and Switzerland has reopened its airspace after five days blocked by ash from Iceland's volcano....
AP

European flights resume, but ash cloud still disrupts (Reuters) (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:58:00 +0200) : Reuters - Flights from large parts of Europe were set to resume on Tuesday under a deal to free up airspace closed by a huge ash cloud, but strengthened eruptions from an Icelandic volcano threatened to unravel the plans.
news-yahoo

Flights resume in European airspace blocked by ash (AP) (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:58:00 +0200) : AP - Limited flights are resuming at Paris airports and Switzerland has reopened its airspace after five days blocked by ash from Iceland's volcano.
news-yahoo

European flights resume, but ash cloud still disrupts (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:53:00 +0200) : AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Flights from large parts of Europe were set to resume on Tuesday under a deal to free up airspace closed by a huge ash cloud, but strengthened eruptions from an Icelandic volcano threatened to unravel the plans.
reuters

Renewed volcano activity threatens flights disruption (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:51:00 +0200) : Plans by aviation chiefs to reopen Irish airspace today were thrown into doubt after eruptions at the Icelandic volcano intensified.
irish-news

New Europe flights give stranded passengers hope (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:49:00 +0200) : European governments opened the continent's airspace to new flights from Tuesday giving hope to passengers around the world trapped by the cloud of volcano ash that has grounded airlines there.
smh

Some flights resume as new ash cloud forms (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:48:00 +0200) : More flights were expected to resume across Europe on Tuesday, but concern also grew of a new cloud of ash that has spewed from an Icelandic volcano that officials said was heading toward the United Kingdom, possibly posing a renewed threat to air travel.
cnn

European flights resume, new ash cloud on horizon (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:37:00 +0200) : Flights from large parts of Europe are set to resume under a deal agreed by the European Union to free up airspace closed by a cloud of ash hurled into the sky by an Icelandic volcano.
news24

Vremya Novostei: Airlines require authorities to forget about volcano, resume flights (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:34:00 +0200) : Moscow. The air traffic in Europe will be gradually resumed on Tuesday, as decided by the transport ministers of the 27-member European Union. The decision was passed at ministers’ meeting on Monday, Vremya Novostei reports. The airlines have put the authorities under serious pressure, as they....
focusnews-en

New Europe flights give stranded passengers hope (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 08:33:00 +0200) : European governments opened the continent's airspace to new flights from Tuesday giving hope to passengers around the world trapped by the cloud of volcano ash that has grounded airlines there
vietnewsonline

Qantas extends flight delays (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 07:56:00 +0200) : Qantas flights to Europe will remain cancelled until at least Friday following further volcanic activity in Iceland. The airline says over 15,000 customers have been affected by the delays. British authorities say the eruption of Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull glacier volcano is intensifying and a new....
abc-au

Volcano has tourists stuck in Tobago -- (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 07:28:00 +0200) : Passengers booked on British Airways and Virgin Atlantic flights have been stranded in Tobago since last Wednesday, after a cloud of ash spewed from a volcano in Iceland, halting air traffic in Europe.
trinidadexpress

Volcanic ash cloud: European flights set to resume (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 07:27:00 +0200) : Flights from large parts of Europe were set to resume today under a deal agreed by the European Union to free up airspace closed by a cloud of ash hurled from an erupting Icelandic volcano.
telegraph

Some European airports stop operating again (ROUNDUP) (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 06:33:00 +0200) : Transport ministers of the EU agreed Monday to ease the restrictive regime for flights imposed over the ashes that seized parts of Europe after the volcano eruption in Iceland as of Tuesday. The document, which the ministers passed, states that the normal traffic can not be resumed over the next three or four days.
focusnews-en

Volcano-stranded fliers seek new ways home (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 05:56:00 +0200) : Europeans have been searching for ways home amid a shutdown of flights caused by volcanic ash. The fallout from Iceland's volcano ...
usaToday

Flight ban hits Kenya fresh produce exports (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 05:17:00 +0200) : - Kenya's horticulture industry has lost $12 million to the volcano-induced European airspace closure and it will take several weeks to recover even if flights resume now, its association of exporters said on Monday. Horticultural exports are the leading hard earner in east Africa's largest , raking in 71.
africaFM

Europe starts to resume flights (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 04:23:00 +0200) : A few flights take off in northern Europe, after five days of disruption due to the spread of Icelandic volcano ash.
bbc

EU: Gradual Resumption of Flights to Begin Tuesday (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 03:29:00 +0200) : European transportation ministers have agreed to partly reopen skies over northern Europe after an erupting volcano in Iceland ground flights for five days. The decision to let traffic resume on Tuesday on a limited basis gives some hope to passengers stranded around the globe, but it might not last long as the eruptions are strengthening.
voanews

Military Adjusts to Icelandic Volcano’s Ashfall (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 03:11:00 +0200) : Ash from an Icelandic volcano continues to wreak havoc with air flights across Europe, including American military flights.
globalsecurity

New Europe flights give stranded passengers hope (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 02:48:00 +0200) : European governments opened the continent's airspace to new flights from Tuesday giving hope to passengers around the world trapped by the cloud of volcano ash that has grounded airlines there.
smh

New Europe flights give stranded passengers hope (AFP) (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 02:43:00 +0200) : AFP - European governments opened the continent's airspace to new flights from Tuesday giving hope to passengers around the world trapped by the cloud of volcano ash that has grounded airlines there.
news-yahoo

European flights resume, new ash cloud on horizon (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 02:12:00 +0200) : AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Flights from large parts of Europe are set to resume on Tuesday under a deal agreed by the European Union to free up airspace closed by a cloud of ash hurled into the sky by an Icelandic volcano.
thestar

European flights resume, new cloud on horizon (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 01:51:00 +0200) : AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Flights from large parts of Europe are set to resume on Tuesday under a deal agreed by the European Union to free up airspace closed by a cloud of ash hurled into the sky by an Icelandic volcano.
reuters

European flights resume, new ash cloud on horizon (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 01:21:00 +0200) : AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Flights from large parts of Europe are set to resume on Tuesday under a deal agreed by the European Union to free up airspace closed by a cloud of ash hurled into the sky by an Icelandic volcano.
reuters

Volcano surge puts flights in doubt (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 01:18:00 +0200) : Plans by aviation chiefs to reopen Irish airspace on Tuesday were thrown into doubt after eruptions at an Icelandic volcano intensified.
belfasttelegraph

European Flights Resume, But Ash Still A Threat (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 01:12:00 +0200) : A deal struck by European Union transportation ministers launched a few flights Monday and may permit more on Tuesday. But fresh ash from the eruption of a volcano in Iceland continues to complicate air travel conditions.
NPRnews

European flights resume, new ash cloud on horizon (Reuters) (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 01:09:00 +0200) : Reuters - Flights from large parts of Europe are set to resume on Tuesday under a deal agreed by the European Union to free up airspace closed by a cloud of ash hurled into the sky by an Icelandic volcano.
news-yahoo

Some flights from Toronto cleared to leave tonight (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 00:44:00 +0200) : With the situation around the Iceland volcano changing constantly, Air Canada says it will operate scheduled flights this evening to Paris, Zurich, Geneva and Tel Aviv, plus two more additional flights to Rome.
TorontoStar

‘Eruption disruption’ could have long-term benefit (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 00:39:00 +0200) : Expert says an ‘excellent opportunity’ has presented itself after Iceland’s volcano grounds thousands of flights
theglobeandmail

EU allows partial resumption of air traffic (Tue, 20 Apr 2010 00:38:00 +0200) : LONDON - European Union officials have agreed to let air traffic resume on a limited basis after ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano grounded flights for five days.European Union transport ministers agreed during a crisis videoconference...
nzherald

Volcanic Ash Costs Bulgarian Airlines EUR 400 000 a Day (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 22:24:00 +0200) : Bulgaria's airlines and foreign companies, which carry out flights over the territory of the country, suffer losses between EUR 300 000 and EUR 400 000 a day due to travel disruptions caused by the high-altitude ash billowing from an erupting Icelandic volcano.
novinite

Air ban led by flawed computer models (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 22:02:00 +0200) : By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels Published: April 19 2010 15:17 | Last updated: April 19 2010 20:46 Flawed computer models may have exaggerated the effects of an Icelandic volcano eruption that has grounded tens of thousands of flights, stranded hundreds of thousands of passengers and cost businesses hundreds of millions of euros.
ft

Denmark extends flight ban till Tuesday at 3:00pm (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 22:02:00 +0200) : Copenhagen. Danish airspace will remain closed until at least 3:00pm Bulgarian time on Tuesday, after flights were halted due to the volcano ash cloud from Island, AFP reported. © 2009 All rights reserved. Reproducing this website’s contents requires obligatory reference to FOCUS Information....
focusnews-en

Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull could trigger more powerful volcano (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 21:27:00 +0200) : MOSCOW, April 19 (RIA Novosti) - Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajoekull whose eruption froze flights around Europe has somewhat calmed down but could trigger another more powerful volcano, an Icelandic expert said Monday. The eruption on the Eyjafjallajokull Glacier in Iceland, which began on....
rian-en

Italy to reopen airspace from 0600 GMT Tuesday (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 21:07:00 +0200) : ROME, April 19 (Reuters) - Italy will reopen all its airspace from 0600 GMT on Tuesday, the civil aviation authority ENAC said. Northern Italian airports have been closed since Friday due to ash from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajoekull. ENAC said domestic flights would resume gradually, followed by international flights.
alertnet

EU nations to ease flight restrictions (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 20:32:00 +0200) : European transport ministers have agreed to ease, from Tuesday, restrictions imposed on flights due to the ash cloud emanating from an Icelandic volcano.
news24

Around 450 AI passengers stranded at Paris airport (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 20:14:00 +0200) : Over 450 Air India passengers are stranded at Paris airport with flights remaining suspended for fifth day today as ash clouds from an Iceland volcano continued to wreck havoc over the vast swathe of European continent.
HindustanTimes

Kenya Losing Millions as Volcano Grounds Flights (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:49:00 +0200) : Farmers scramble to save produce stranded in Nairobi international airport as volcanic ash costs them $3 million in losses daily
voanews

Europe Moves To Restore Limited Commercial Flights (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:39:00 +0200) : Britain, France and Germany all announced Monday that some commercial flights will be allowed, as the travel crisis triggered by the eruption of a volcano in Iceland moved into its fifth day.
NPRnews

Travellers staring at two-week wait (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:37:00 +0200) : Passengers trying to fly out of New Zealand to Europe are expected to be stranded here for at least two weeks, even if the ash cloud from Iceland's erupting volcano clears this week.About half the scheduled flights across Europe...
nzherald

Volcano casts cloud over European economy (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:30:00 +0200) : The cloud of ash from an Iceland volcano is casting a shadow over the nascent economic recovery in Europe as the cancellation of flights in key markets entered its fifth day.
cnn

Flight cancellations hurt airport businesses (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:14:00 +0200) : Losses are mounting for small businesses at the Calgary airport as a huge ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano forced the cancellation of flights to and from Europe again Monday.
CBC

BA flights disrupted after volcano (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:05:00 +0200) : Ash spewing from a volcano in Iceland grounded the British Airways flight yesterday and could cause further disruption into the weekend.
bermudasun

Iceland volcano: climate to survive natural, as well as man-made phenomena? (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 18:54:00 +0200) : When Iceland's Eyjafjoell volcano erupted on 15 April, it halted flights in European airspace but also led to conspiracy theories about reducing CO2 emissions in the atmosphere and cooling off the planet. cafebabel.com Athens blog about the priorities
cafebabel

Video: Push to Resume Flights (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 18:41:00 +0200) : Several test flights into the ash cloud spewed by the Iceland volcano gave conflicting results. Mark Phillips reports.
CBSnews

Europe flight ban over volcano eruption hits Ethiopia's flower sector (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 18:37:00 +0200) : APA-Addis Ababa ((Ethiopia) The cancellation of freights to Europe over volcano eruption in Iceland is currently disrupting Ethiopia’s flower exports raising fears that the industry mightloose millions of dollars. Some flower exporters told APA that due to the last week’s cancellation of flights,....
jimmatimes

Europe flight ban hits Kenya fresh produce exports (Reuters) (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 18:22:00 +0200) : Reuters - Kenya's horticulture industry has lost $12 million to the volcano-induced European airspace closure and it will take several weeks to recover even if flights resume now, it's association of exporters said on Monday.
news-yahoo

Volcano ash cloud: Growing anger over Europe flights canceled (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 18:17:00 +0200) : The ash cloud from a volcano in Iceland kept most Europe flights canceled for a fifth day, sparking criticism from an airline group that regulators are being too cautious. What's open? Rome, Prague, Nice, France, and Barcelona, Spain.
csmonitor

Ash cloud takes small toll on airlines, exports (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 18:02:00 +0200) : The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland, causing cancellation of flights to and from Europe, is hurting airlines, hotels and electronics exporters. According to industry sources, a total of 57 passenger and cargo flights have been canceled by the nation’s two major carriers since Thursday, when the volcano erupted.
joongangdaily

Europe mulls ways to end air traffic chaos (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:56:00 +0200) : Airlines operating in Europe have suffered huge losses since Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano began erupting Wednesday for the second time in a month, spewing a cloud of ash over Europe that has grounded flights and stranded passengers. On April 19, the EU transportation ministers will hold a video conference to draft an action plan.
rian-en

Flight cancellations hurting airport businesses (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:43:00 +0200) : Losses are mounting for small business operators at the Calgary International Airport as a huge ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano forced the cancellation of flights to and from Europe again Monday.
CBC

U.K. Flights to Resume; Volcano Plume Ebbs (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:40:00 +0200) : With Ash Now at Lower Altitudes, Britain Will Begin Ending Airspace Restrictions; Lufthansa Permitted to Fly Back Home
CBSnews

Uganda: Anxiety As Flights Stall At Airports (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:21:00 +0200) : The grounding of flights destined to Europe at Entebbe airport due to drifting ash ejected from a volcano in Iceland has caused anxiety among foreign travellers and a major loss to the local importers and exporters.
allafrica

Iceland volcano: flights to start again in UK tomorrow (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:17:00 +0200) : Flights will finally start again in the UK tomorrow after air traffic control company Nats lifted restrictions for Scotland and part of northern England.
telegraph

How the Iceland volcano ash cloud is crippling Kenya's flower industry (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:15:00 +0200) : Kenya's flower and vegetable industry, which employs tens of thousands of workers and contributes over a fifth of the country’s GDP, is losing $3 million per day because ash from the Iceland volcano has grounded freight flights.
csmonitor

Passengers stranded at Beijing Airport as volcanic ash cloud spreads (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 16:56:00 +0200) : Air China cancelled flights to Russia for two days citing the eruption of an ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland. RIA Novosti was told at Beijing Capital International Airport that Air China flight CA909 was cancelled on April 17, and so was the one due the day before.
rian-en

Iceland volcano: British Airways condemns grounding of flights (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 16:32:00 +0200) : The BA chief executive Willie Walsh says airlines are best placed to assess risks themselves after test flights in the wake of the Icelandic volcano show no damage to aircraft engines.
telegraph

(AHN) Volcano Eruptions Cost Kenya More Than $200 Million (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 15:01:00 +0200) : The Kenyan economy has lost more than $200 million in four days after the cancellation of flights from and to European countries over worries about ash from the Icelandic volcano. - (AHN)
AHN

Why volcanic ash could destroy aircraft engine (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 14:25:00 +0200) : A huge ash cloud that erupted from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland has disrupted air service in most of Europe; airports have been closed in Britain, France, Poland and other countries, and hundreds of flights have been cancelled.
rian-en

Iceland volcano calming down (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 14:20:00 +0200) : Scientists at Iceland’s Bryndis Brandsdottir University report a significant calmdown of the volcano that sent a cloud of dust and ash across Europe. The volcano is 200 kilometres east of Reykjavik. For a fifth day now, dozens of European nations are keeping flights delayed or cancelled, for fear of the volcanic cloud.
ruvr-en

Airlines Question Flight Ban Due To Volcanic Ash (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 14:05:00 +0200) : Major airlines have flown test flights and some pilots and airline officials say it's safe to fly despite the erupting volcano in Iceland. Eurocontrol, the air traffic agency in Brussels, said less than one-third of flights in Europe were taking off Monday. Britain is sending Royal Navy warships to rescue stranded passengers across the channel.
NPRnews

Ash clouds from Iceland volcano disrupt flights in Europe (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:55:00 +0200) : The Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupted on April 14, 2010 You may place this material on your blog by copying the link. Publication code: 15:31 19/04/2010 The Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupted on April 14, 2010 15:31 19/04/2010 The Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupted on April 14, 2010 You may place this material on your blog by copying the link.
rian-en

Kenya’s horticulture industry loses $12m to volcano (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:32:00 +0200) : Kenya’s horticulture industry has lost $12 million to the volcano-induced European airspace closure and it will take several weeks to recover even if flights resume now, its association of exporters said on Monday.
bday

Aviation crisis strands 48,000 travelers on Israel-Europe flights (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:22:00 +0200) : Published: 04.19.10, 14:00 / Israel News Around 48,000 people traveling between Israel and Europe have remained stranded so far by the international aviation crisis caused by the eruption of a volcano in Iceland. Since the crisis began, 300 flights to and from Ben Gurion International Airport have been canceled.
yediotaharonot

Aviation crisis strands 48,000 travelers on Israel-Europe flights (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:19:00 +0200) : Published: 04.19.10, 14:00 / Israel News Around 48,000 people traveling between Israel and Europe have remained stranded so far by the international aviation crisis caused by the eruption of a volcano in Iceland. Since the crisis began, 300 flights to and from Ben Gurion International Airport have been canceled.
ynetnews

One-Third of European Flights Will Operate Monday (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:16:00 +0200) : A volcano in southeastern Iceland erupted last week, sending a thick cloud of ash and dust into the air, which canceled many flights
voanews

Dramatic footage of ash and lightening above Iceland volcano (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:12:00 +0200) : ITN reporter John Irvine takes a helicopter above the crater of the Icelandic volcano spewing out the ash which has grounded UK flights.
telegraph

Airlines Question Ban Due To Volcanic Ash (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:04:00 +0200) : Major airlines have flown test flights and some pilots and airline officials say it's safe to fly despite the erupting volcano in Iceland. The European Union says weather forecasts suggest half of normally scheduled flights could operate today.
NPRnews

Dramatic footage of ash cloud above crater of Icelandic volcano (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 12:42:00 +0200) : ITN reporter John Irvine takes a helicopter above the crater of the Icelandic volcano spewing out the ash which has grounded UK flights.
telegraph

London to send warships to rescue stranded Britons (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 12:25:00 +0200) : The British government will send three Royal Navy warships to bring home Britons stranded overseas by disruption to flights caused by the eruption of a volcano in Iceland, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Monday.
rian-en

Bad For The Airlines, Good For The Air - Volcanic Chart Of The Day (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:57:00 +0200) : "The eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull Volcano has wreaked havoc in Europe’s air traffic, but its environmental impacts are positive. As a result of the mass cancellation of flights a lot less carbon-dioxide is being let into the air than on a normal day.
budapestsun

MAS cancels more Europe flights due to volcano ash hazard (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:36:00 +0200) : Malaysia Airlines flights to London, Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt on Tuesday have been cancelled due to Icelandic volcano ash.
thestar

Airport shutdowns disrupt UK supply chain (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:26:00 +0200) : Infratil Ltd said its two airports in the United Kingdom are getting on with maintenance work and staff are taking holidays while the ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano prevents flights from operating.The Wellington-based infrastructure...
nzherald

Over 400 flights cancelled in Russia after Eyjafjallajokull eruption (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 11:06:00 +0200) : 19.04.2010, 10.40 MOSCOW, April 19 (Itar-Tass) -- A total of 411 flights have been cancelled and 77 more delayed in Russia’s airports as of 09:00 Moscow time on Monday after the eruption of a volcano on the Eyjafjallajokull Glacier in Iceland, which began last Wednesday, a source in the Russian Air Transport Agency told Ita-Tass.
itartass_en

Europe flights resume, though Icelandic volcano ash remains (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 10:48:00 +0200) : Civil aviation authorities in Britain say flight restrictions in the country's airspace because of drifting volcanic ash will ...
usaToday

Ash forces St John's to cancel flights (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 10:44:00 +0200) : Falling ash that may be headed for Newfoundland from an erupting Icelandic volcano has resulted in the cancellation of many Monday morning flights out of St John's, after Transport Canada and Nav Canada determined there's a good chance the plume is beginning to touch Canadian skies.
TorontoStar

Ash cloud to disrupt EU parliament session (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 10:13:00 +0200) : At least one third of the parliament's 736 deputies have to be present in plenary for a vote to be legally valid. Some MEPs were unable to fly home from the EU capital last week when ash from a volcano in Iceland grounded flights across Europe. But many others are now stuck in their constituencies.
euobserver

Desperate Europeans seek routes home (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:34:00 +0200) : Desperate European travellers stranded overseas struggled to find a way home, clamouring for information on flights into the continent’s few airports not closed by the dangerous cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano.
icWales

Discovery 'unhampered' by volcanic ash (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:19:00 +0200) : Discovery astronauts are preparing to return to Earth after a successful supply mission to the International Space Station amid flights being grounded by the volcano in Iceland.
iol

Volcano casts cloud over European economy (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:10:00 +0200) : The cloud of ash from an Iceland volcano is casting a shadow over the nascent economic recovery in Europe as the cancellation of flights in key markets entered its fifth day.
cnn

Discovery 'unhampered' by volcanic ash (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:58:00 +0200) : Discovery astronauts are preparing to return to Earth after a successful supply mission to the International Space Station amid flights being grounded by the volcano in Iceland.
Star

EU transport ministers to end air traffic paralysis (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:46:00 +0200) : The EU Ministers of Transport are meeting in Brussels for an emergency session to discuss ways to end the continent’s transport paralysis owing to the continuing eruption of the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano in Iceland. More than 300 airports have been closed and 63,000 flights cancelled since the volcano began spewing lava.
ruvr-en

Desperate Europeans seek routes home (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:46:00 +0200) : Desperate European travellers stranded overseas struggled to find a way home, clamouring for information on flights into the continent’s few airports not closed by the dangerous cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano.
irish-news

Volcano-stranded Europeans seek alternate routes (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:08:00 +0200) : Frustrated European travelers stranded overseas struggled to find alternate routes home, desperate for information on flights into the continent's few airports not closed by a dangerous cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano.
HindustanTimes

Airlines call for flight restrictions to be eased (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 08:03:00 +0200) : Europe’s air industry has demanded an urgent review of the flight curbs currently in place, despite no let up in the ash pumping out of an erupting Icelandic volcano. On Sunday, several airlines carried out test flights, reporting no obvious damage. Earlier, the EU’s transport commissioner said he....
euronews-en

EU transport ministers to end Europe’s transport paralysis (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 07:46:00 +0200) : The EU Ministers of Transport are meeting in Brussels for an emergency session to discuss ways to end the continent’s transport paralysis owing to the continuing eruption of the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano in Iceland. More than 300 airports have been closed and 63,000 flights cancelled since the volcano began spewing lava.
ruvr-en

Finnish officials say to briefly open 2 airports (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 07:41:00 +0200) : HELSINKI, April 19 (Reuters) - Finland's airport managing group Finavia said airspace over two of the Nordic country's smaller airports would be opened for six hours on Monday thanks to gaps in the cloud of ash spewed by an Icelandic volcano. It said the decision meant flights could operate from the....
alertnet

Volcano-stranded Europeans seek alternate routes (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 07:39:00 +0200) : Frustrated European travelers stranded overseas struggled to find alternate routes home, desperate for information on flights into the continent's few airports not closed by a dangerous cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano.
thedailystarBD

Qantas Tallies Cancellation Costs (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 07:37:00 +0200) : Qantas said European flights canceled because of ash from Iceland's erupting volcano are costing it $1.4 million a day.
wsj

Ash forces Qantas to cancel more flights (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 07:00:00 +0200) : Qantas has cancelled more flights to London as it continues to wait for ash from an Icelandic volcano to dissipate over Europe.
smh

Europe flights resume, though Icelandic volcano's ash remains (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 06:48:00 +0200) : European air carriers planned to send some flights back into the skies today despite a plume of volcanic ash causing widespread ...
usaToday

Volcano-stranded Europeans seek alternate routes (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 06:35:00 +0200) : BANGKOK (AP) -- Frustrated European travelers stranded overseas struggled to find alternate routes home, desperate for information on flights into the continent's few airports not closed by a dangerous cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano....
AP

Volcano-stranded Europeans seek alternate routes (AP) (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 06:20:00 +0200) : AP - Frustrated European travelers stranded overseas struggled to find alternate routes home, desperate for information on flights into the continent's few airports not closed by a dangerous cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano.
news-yahoo

EU emergency talks on air chaos (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 06:20:00 +0200) : EU officials say they hope up to half of the flights across Europe could operate on Monday, giving hope to millions of stranded passengers across the world who have been unable to fly because of the sprawling ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano.
bbc-video

Stranded Europeans seek alternate routes (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 06:14:00 +0200) : Frustrated European travelers stranded overseas struggled to find alternate routes home, desperate for information on flights into the continent's few airports not closed by a dangerous cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano.
msnbc

Ashen outlook for carriers in face of volcano (Mon, 19 Apr 2010 04:41:00 +0200) : Air travel chaos across Europe caused by volcanic ash spewed by an active volcano in Iceland continued Sunday, impacting tourists and businesspeople's schedules and causing economic loss to Chinese airlines and tourism agencies. Air China canceled five one-way flights and eight return flights to....
peopledaily

Earthquake hits Papua New Guinea

A strong earthquake measuring 6.4 on the Richter scale rocked the eastern region of Papua New Guinea, 316km north of Port
Moresby and 3,463km southeast of Kunak, Sabah at 7.15am today.

The earthquake did not pose any tsunami threat, the Malaysian Meteorological Department said in a statement.

Seasons are changing

Rapid temperature changes affect the seasons, causing variations in season length.

Changes such as shorter winters can lead to mismatches between key elements in an ecosystem, such as feeding periods for young birds and availability of worms or insects for food. It also impacts on farmers’ growing seasons.

Climatic records put together with long-term records of flowering and nesting times show clear warming trends.

In Britain flowering time and leaf-break records date back to 1736, thus providing solid evidence of climate-related changes. Long-term trends towards earlier bird breeding, earlier spring migrant arrival and later autumn departure dates have been observed in North America, along with changes in migratory patterns in Europe.

Tropics: Global Warming Likely to Significantly Affect Rainfall Patterns

Climate models project that the global average temperature will rise about 1°C by the middle of the century, if we continue with business as usual and emit greenhouse gases as we have been. The global average, though, does not tell us anything about what will happen to regional climates, for example rainfall in the western United States or in paradisical islands like Hawai'i.

Analyzing global model warming projections in models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a team of scientists headed by meteorologist Shang-Ping Xie at the University of Hawaii at Mānoa's International Pacific Research Center, finds that ocean temperature patterns in the tropics and subtropics will change in ways that will lead to significant changes in rainfall patterns. The study will be published in the Journal of Climate this month, breaking ground on such regional climate forecasts.

Scientists have mostly assumed that the surfaces of Earth's oceans will warm rather evenly in the tropics. This assumption has led to "wetter-gets-wetter" and "drier-gets-drier" regional rainfall projections. Xie's team has gathered evidence that, although ocean surface temperatures can be expected to increase mostly everywhere by the middle of the century, the increase may differ by up to 1.5°C depending upon the region.

"Compared to the mean projected rise of 1°C, such differences are fairly large and can have a pronounced impact on tropical and subtropical climate by altering atmospheric heating patterns and therefore rainfall," explains Xie. "Our results broadly indicate that regions of peak sea surface temperature will get wetter, and those relatively cool will get drier."

Two patterns stand out. First, the maximum temperature rise in the Pacific is along a broad band at the equator. Already today the equatorial Pacific sets the rhythm of a global climate oscillation as shown by the world-wide impact of El Niño. This broad band of peak temperature on the equator changes the atmospheric heating in the models. By anchoring a rainband similar to that during an El Nino, it influences climate around the world through atmospheric teleconnections.

A second ocean warming pattern with major impact on rainfall noted by Xie and his colleagues occurs in the Indian Ocean and would affect the lives of billions of people. Overlayed on Indian Ocean warming for part of the year is what scientists call the Indian Ocean Dipole that occasionally occurs today once every decade or so. Thus, the models show that warming in the western Indian Ocean is amplified, reaching 1.5°C, while the eastern Indian Ocean it is dampened to around 0.5°C.

"Should this pattern come about," Xie predicts, "it can be expected to dramatically shift rainfall over eastern Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. Droughts could then beset Indonesia and Australia, whereas regions of India and regions of Africa bordering the Arabian Sea could get more rain than today."

Patterns of sea surface temperature warming and precipitation change in 2050 as compared with 2000. Annual mean precipitation change is shown in green/gray shade and white contours in mm/month. Precipitation tends to increase over regions with ocean warming above the tropical mean (contours of warm colors in oC), and to decrease where ocean warming is below the tropical mean (contours of cool colors).

Hurricanes getting stronger due to global warming says study

SUMMARY: Late last month an atmospheric scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology released a study in Nature that found hurricanes have grown significantly more powerful and destructive over the past three decades. Kerry Emanuel, the author of the study, warns that since hurricanes depend on warm water to form and build, global climate change might increase the effect of hurricanes still further in coming years.


Hurricane Katrina moved ashore over southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi early on August 29, 2005, as an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm. With winds of 135 miles per hour (217 kilometers per hour), a powerful storm surge, and heavy rains, Katrina pounded the U.S. Gulf Coast, triggering extensive life-threatening flooding. This GOES image shows the storm as it moved over southern Mississippi at 9:02 a.m. The eye of the storm was due east of New Orleans, Louisiana. Katrina moved north into Mississippi, and was expected to track quickly northeast across the United States into Eastern Canada over the first part of the week. (Image courtesy of the NASA Earth Observatory.)



Hurricanes Growing More Fierce Over Past 30 Years
National Science Foundation release
Original July 31, 2005 release


Hurricanes have grown significantly more powerful and destructive over the past three decades, according to atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.


In his new analysis of tropical hurricane records, which he reports online today in the journal Nature, Emanuel finds that both the duration of the storms and their maximum wind speeds have increased by about 50 per cent since the mid-1970s. Moreover, this marked increase in the energy release has occurred in both the north Atlantic and the north Pacific Oceans.

Unlike previous studies, which have focused on whether hurricanes are becoming more frequent, Emanuel's study is one of the first to ask whether they are becoming more fierce.

"It's an innovative application of a theoretical concept, and has produced a new analysis of hurricanes' strength and destructive potential," says Jay Fein, director of the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s climate dynamics program, which funded the research. And that analysis, in turn, "has resulted in an important measure of the potential impact of hurricanes on social, economic and ecological systems,"

Indeed, as Emanuel himself says, "the near doubling of hurricane's power over the period of record should be a matter of some concern, as it's a measure of the [future] destructive potential of these storms."

Also of concern, he says, is that the increases in storm intensity are mirrored by increases in the average temperatures at the surface of the tropical oceans, suggesting that this warming is responsible for the hurricanes' greater power. Since hurricanes depend on warm water to form and build, Emanuel warns that global climate change might increase the effect of hurricanes still further in coming years.

In addition, he says, recent research suggests that global tropical hurricane activity may play a role in driving the oceans' circulation, which in turn has important "feedbacks" to regional and global climate.

Fluctuations in tropical hurricane activity "are of obvious importance to society," he adds, "especially as populations of affected areas increase. Hurricanes account for a significant fraction of damage, injury and loss of life from natural hazards, and are the costliest natural catastrophes in the United States. As the human population in coastal regions gets denser, the damage and casualties produced by more intense storms could increase considerably in the future."


Hurricanes growing fiercer with global warming
Elizabeth A. Thomson, MIT News Office
Original July 31, 2005 release


Hurricanes have grown significantly more powerful and destructive over the last three decades due in part to global warming, says an MIT professor who warns that this trend could continue.

"My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in [hurricanes'] destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the 21st century," reports Kerry Emanuel in a paper appearing in the July 31 online edition of the journal Nature.

Emanuel is a professor of meteorology in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences.

Theories and computer simulations of climate indicate that warming should generate an increase in storm intensity. In other words, they should hit harder, produce higher winds and last longer.

To explore that premise, Emanuel analyzed records of tropical cyclones--commonly called hurricanes or typhoons--since the middle of the 20th century. He found that the amount of energy released in these events in both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific oceans has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. Both the duration of the cyclones and the largest wind speeds they produce have increased by about 50 percent over the past 50 years.

He further reports that these increases in storm intensity are mirrored by increases in the average temperature at the surface of the tropical oceans, suggesting that this warming--some of which can be ascribed to global warming--is responsible for the greater power of the cyclones.

According to Jay Fein, director of the National Science Foundation's climate dynamics program, which funded the research, Emanuel's work "has resulted in an important measure of the potential impact of hurricanes on social, economic and ecological systems. It's an innovative application of a theoretical concept, and has produced a new analysis of hurricanes' strength and destructive potential."