A cap on energy
consumption is expected to be at the heart of a Chinese low-carbon plan
to be issued this year, experts believe, amid reports that officials
have now agreed its level.
China is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, making up a quarter of the global total. Experts say setting an energy limit would add certainty to the country's attempts to rein in emissions and should make it easier for emissions trading schemes to get off the ground.
The cap has been anticipated for some time but is now thought likely to emerge in the low-carbon plan understood to have been broadly approved by a panel set up by the state council, China's cabinet, and chaired by the premier, Wen Jiabao. It should be formally passed later this year.
Reuters reported that officials have settled on a total energy cap of 4.1bn tonnes of coal equivalent (TCE) by 2015 – a level more than 25% higher than last year.
Analysts warn that the plan has yet to be nailed down and that a cap could still be delayed by disagreements, to re-emerge in a later policy document.
The government in March unveiled its five year-plan for 2011-2015. Setting out the economic course for the nation, it aims for a more sustainable pace of growth and includes a new carbon intensity target – trying to slow emissions growth relative to GDP by 17% – as well as a goal of improving energy intensity by 16%. Officials are fleshing it out.
A cap "is significant, because it makes it much clearer to provinces what they have to do regardless of what GDP growth rate is", said Deborah Seligsohn, a climate policy expert working for the World Resources Institute in Beijing.
"The cap they have been talking about is essentially based on the growth rate they expect overall; it doesn't mean cutting further, but it does add certainty."
She said it would also make pilot emissions trading systems in six provinces and cities more effective. Although people have been looking at ways to base systems on carbon intensity, a cap would make matters much more straightforward.
A level of 4.1bn TCE would be higher than many had expected. Zhang Guobao, formerly China's top energy official, told the state news agency Xinhua in April that there would be a cap of 4bn TCE.
"There were some very aggressive suggestions from scholars. Some have suggested [4.1bn TCE] would be rather conservative, but from where I stand I think it is very positive," said Changhua Wu, the Climate Group's China representative.
"When you set a cap you obviously are going to set an attitude towards shifting the structure ... Part of the big lesson we learned in the last five years is that you could grow wind and solar and nuclear energy aggressively but keep consuming more."
Another key issue will be whether the plan spells out targets for individual provinces on energy and carbon intensity.
China's commitment to meeting environmental targets was underlined when provinces abruptly shut down plants last year to try to meet the goals of the last five-year plan.
With the central government keeping a closer eye on the progress of provinces, the National Development and Reform Commission – the country's top economic planning body – recently published the names of those struggling to meet targets.
"The Chinese government has made it pretty clear they expect these targets to be met. This time the provinces know that now, so they will be working from the beginning," said Seligsohn.
China is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, making up a quarter of the global total. Experts say setting an energy limit would add certainty to the country's attempts to rein in emissions and should make it easier for emissions trading schemes to get off the ground.
The cap has been anticipated for some time but is now thought likely to emerge in the low-carbon plan understood to have been broadly approved by a panel set up by the state council, China's cabinet, and chaired by the premier, Wen Jiabao. It should be formally passed later this year.
Reuters reported that officials have settled on a total energy cap of 4.1bn tonnes of coal equivalent (TCE) by 2015 – a level more than 25% higher than last year.
Analysts warn that the plan has yet to be nailed down and that a cap could still be delayed by disagreements, to re-emerge in a later policy document.
The government in March unveiled its five year-plan for 2011-2015. Setting out the economic course for the nation, it aims for a more sustainable pace of growth and includes a new carbon intensity target – trying to slow emissions growth relative to GDP by 17% – as well as a goal of improving energy intensity by 16%. Officials are fleshing it out.
A cap "is significant, because it makes it much clearer to provinces what they have to do regardless of what GDP growth rate is", said Deborah Seligsohn, a climate policy expert working for the World Resources Institute in Beijing.
"The cap they have been talking about is essentially based on the growth rate they expect overall; it doesn't mean cutting further, but it does add certainty."
She said it would also make pilot emissions trading systems in six provinces and cities more effective. Although people have been looking at ways to base systems on carbon intensity, a cap would make matters much more straightforward.
A level of 4.1bn TCE would be higher than many had expected. Zhang Guobao, formerly China's top energy official, told the state news agency Xinhua in April that there would be a cap of 4bn TCE.
"There were some very aggressive suggestions from scholars. Some have suggested [4.1bn TCE] would be rather conservative, but from where I stand I think it is very positive," said Changhua Wu, the Climate Group's China representative.
"When you set a cap you obviously are going to set an attitude towards shifting the structure ... Part of the big lesson we learned in the last five years is that you could grow wind and solar and nuclear energy aggressively but keep consuming more."
Another key issue will be whether the plan spells out targets for individual provinces on energy and carbon intensity.
China's commitment to meeting environmental targets was underlined when provinces abruptly shut down plants last year to try to meet the goals of the last five-year plan.
With the central government keeping a closer eye on the progress of provinces, the National Development and Reform Commission – the country's top economic planning body – recently published the names of those struggling to meet targets.
"The Chinese government has made it pretty clear they expect these targets to be met. This time the provinces know that now, so they will be working from the beginning," said Seligsohn.
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